AMOLED to Surpass a-Si TFT LCD, as Leading Technology for Small and Medium Displays in 2016
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AMOLED to Surpass a-Si TFT LCD, as Leading Technology for Small and Medium Displays in 2016
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  • 승인 2016.09.26 14:00
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By Hiroshi Hayase, Senior Director, Small and Medium Displays, IHS Markit

The Bottom Line:
Revenue from active matrix displays (nine inches or smaller measured diagonally), including thin-film-transistor (TFT) LCD displays, active-matrix organic light-emitting diode (AMOLED) displays and active-matrix electrophoretic displays (AMEPD), is expected to reach $43.4 billion in 2016.

Although revenue growth has been flat since 2015, small and medium AMOLED display revenue is expected to reach $14.3 billion in 2016, closing in on low-temperature polysilicon displays ($14.7 billion) and surpassing amorphous silicon (a-Si) TFT LCD displays ($14 billion).

▲ Source: The IHS Markit Small Medium Display Market Tracker contains quarterly updates of small medium by application, size, resolution, and technology (LCD, OLED). It provides a four-year quarterly forecast and an additional three-year annual forecast

Our Analysis:
Bolstered by the rise in flexible displays used in smartphones, tablet PCs and connected wearable devices, AMOLED is set to be the leading next-generation display technology. At the same time, a-Si TFT LCD will eventually become a legacy display technology, with decreasing demand -- especially for smartphone displays.

In 2016 AMOLED displays enjoyed strong demand from the smartphone market -- especially the Galaxy S series from Samsung Electronics. In the Chinese market, OPPO and VIVO also aggressively added AMOLED displays to their high-end models in 2016. Plus, to differentiate its mid-range smartphones, Samsung also used AMOLED displays in its Galaxy J series.

At the same time, the lackluster sales of iPhone 6S had a negative impact on TFT LCD display revenue, especially low-temperature polysilicon (LTPS) TFT LCD displays. Although the iPhone 7 was expected this year, display makers were conservative in their estimates of total display demand for the iPhones in 2016. Increasing AMOLED demand also negatively affected TFT-LCD display revenue.

It will be important to watch what happens in the smartphone display market this year, especially the following:

Although it may be a limited model, the well-publicized issues with Samsung’s Galaxy Note 7 batteries could stymie some AMOLED panel sales.

On the other hand, iPhone 7 orders have been much stronger than expected in the U.S., which could have the reverse effect on AMOLED sales.

Our latest forecast shows strong growth for small and medium AMOLED displays in 2016, but the trend may be revised in the fourth quarter, depending on how the market shakes out.


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